Abstract
While the expansion of monoculture oil palm plantations has contributed to national and local economic growth, large-scale development within forested areas has led to deforestation in Indonesia. This has raised concerns among key market countries, particularly in the European Union, potentially leading to trade restrictions on Indonesia’s oil palm products linked to deforestation. In response, the Indonesian government has introduced several regulations to address this issue. One such regulation involves the adoption of Strategi Jangka Benah, a transitional strategy to convert monoculture oil palm plantations within state forests into oil palm agroforestry (OPAF) systems under the social forestry program. OPAF is considered more ecologically sustainable and economically viable than monoculture plantations. However, understanding smallholder farmers’ preferences for tree species combinations in OPAF is crucial, as these choices impact adoption rates. This study aims to predict adoption peaks and adoption timelines while identifying the key factors influencing both, using the Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool framework and analyze how socio-economic characteristics influence farmers’ decisions to adopt oil palm agroforestry. Data was collected through structured interviews and focus group discussions with 136 smallholder farmers in Jambi, Indonesia. The findings reveal the predicted adoption peaks for oil palm agroforestry systems were 39% for oil palm–Shorea leprosula, 95% for oil palm–Durio zibethinus, and 98% for oil palm–Falcataria moluccana, with estimated adoption timelines of 20, 19, and 13 years, respectively. The time to reach peak adoption was significantly affected by trialability, innovation complexity, and the relative upfront adoption cost. Meanwhile, adoption peaks were primarily influenced by current and future economic and environmental benefits. It shows that the number of family members and monthly income significantly influence farmers’ decisions to adopt OPAF, as well. Based on these findings, several policy recommendations are proposed to accelerate OPAF adoption rates.
SDGs:
SDG 12:Responsible Consumtion and Production
SDG 13:Climate Action
SDG 15:Life on Land
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