Abstract
Wind damage in Eucalyptus plantations are one of the main factors affecting fibre productivity losses in Sumatra, Indonesia. High levels of damage start between 1.5 and 3.5 years old, with total wind damage of between 7 % and 15 % by area in Eucalyptus plantations. The characteristics of the plantation stands are the most critical factors influencing the level of damage. In this study, the ForestGALES wind damage risk model was parameterised for Eucalyptus clones growing in the Riau Province, Indonesia. Measurements of tree morphology, wood strength (modulus of rupture and modulus of elasticity), and uprooting resistance were made on two clones with very different known vulnerability to wind damage. The uprooting resistance was linearly correlated to stem weight and was not significantly different between the two clones. The ForestGALES model was run for plantations of these clones with known levels of damage using the measured parameter values. Damage levels were set at 20 %, 27 %, and 30 % at the ages of 1.5, 2.5, and 3.5 years, respectively. The model was able to successfully discriminate between damaged and undamaged stands using the Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) with Area Under the Curve (AUC) values of between 0.77 and 0.95. In addition, a significant difference in calculated critical wind speed (CWS) values between the two different clones was observed, where CWS is the wind speed at which there is a nominal 50 % probability of wind damage occurrence. This indicates that the ForestGALES model can be used for predicting the probability of different levels of damage in Eucalyptus plantations growing in the tropics and as a tool for tree breeders to classify individual clone resistance and susceptibility to wind damage.
SDGs:
SDG 13: Penanganan Perubahan Iklim
SDG 15: Ekosistem Daratan
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